What Are the Three Phases of the Gaza Ceasefire Deal?
Date: 
January 15 2025

After months of tense negotiations, officials announced on Wednesday that Hamas and Israel agreed on a ceasefire deal, bringing the 15-month genocide to a pause, according to The Associated Press. The announcement was made after the military wing of Hamas, led by Mohammed Al-Sinwar in Gaza, accepted the proposed terms of the agreement. The ceasefire is expected to hold for six weeks while negotiations to end the genocide continue. 

Sources confirmed to The Associated Press that a deal had been reached but that Netanyahu is seeking approval from his cabinet before terms go into effect. The Israeli cabinet is expected to vote on Thursday. 

In recent days, mediators in Qatar reported significant progress despite last-minute hurdles over military arrangements and political approval. The deal, set to be implemented as early as Sunday, promises a phased withdrawal of Israeli Occupation Forces from the Gaza Strip, a surge in humanitarian relief, and a road map to long-term stability in Gaza.

Israel has killed more than 46,000 Palestinians according to local authorities, with thousands more uncounted. A recent study by The Lancet estimated that the true death toll could be 40% higher. 

NBC News reported that the ceasefire could go into effect as early as Friday and that the first group of Israeli captives would be released on Sunday, according to a diplomatic source they spoke to in Washington. During a news conference this evening, however, the Qatari prime minister, said that the ceasefire would go into effect on Sunday

Despite significant progress in negotiations, several factors have led to delays in the finalization of the agreement in recent days. Disagreements over the specific deployment of Israeli forces within Gaza, especially concerning the establishment and monitoring of the buffer zone, have caused setbacks.

If the agreement is finalized as planned, the first of three phases will mark the beginning of efforts to cease Israel's attacks and military operations in the Strip. The phased Israeli withdrawal from populated centers in Gaza will coincide with the delivery of humanitarian aid. Israel and Hamas are expected to observe a temporary halt in fighting. Israel has been relentlessly bombing Gaza for 467 days, committing countless massacres and destroying neighborhoods.

Phase One: Ceasefire and Initial Relief Efforts

The first phase of the agreement seeks to address immediate humanitarian needs. Key components of this phase are the withdrawal of Israeli forces from central areas in Gaza, a surge in humanitarian aid, and limited prisoner exchange.

  • Israel’s Withdrawals from Populated Areas

The most significant action during this phase will be the reopening of the Rafah crossing, a critical passage point for both humanitarian aid and medical evacuations. According to a draft text of the agreement published by Middle East Eye, Israeli forces will redeploy around the crossing. Israeli forces would also be expected to gradually withdraw from the Philadelphi corridor bordering Egypt. The agreement also indicates the withdrawal of forces from populated areas in Gaza to at least 700 meters within Gaza’s border, though the size of an official buffer zone has not been announced. Media reports also indicate that the agreement stipulates Israel will allow Palestinians to return to their homes in the besieged northern part of the Strip, which has borne the brunt of Israeli attacks and a man-made famine. 

  • Surge in Humanitarian Aid

Six hundred aid trucks carrying essential supplies will be permitted into Gaza daily. The aid will include food, fuel, medical supplies, and equipment necessary to address the dire situation on the ground. The United Nations and other international humanitarian organizations would monitor aid distribution. This surge is crucial, given the severe conditions in Gaza, where over two million people are facing shortages of food, medicine, and fuel.

  • Prisoner Exchanges

The agreement calls for Hamas to release 33 Israeli captives. In return, Israel will release 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. This staggered process is expected to build trust between the two parties and set the stage for further negotiations. The exchange will take place over the next few weeks, with the first phase expected to be completed shortly after the ceasefire begins.

Phase Two: Sustained Calm and Further Negotiations

According to media reports, Israel will not give written guarantees pertaining to the second and third phases of the agreement, unless conditions for the first phase are met. If so, the second phase will focus on achieving a more durable ceasefire and laying the groundwork for permanent calm. This will involve further prisoner exchanges, a “complete” withdrawal of Israeli forces, the establishment of permanent border arrangements, and additional security measures. 

Phase Three: Reconstruction and Recovery

If the conditions for the second phase are met, the final phase of the agreement will focus on the reconstruction of Gaza. The draft of the agreement, though remains unclear, demands that Hamas hand over the bodies of remaining captives in exchange for a long-term reconstruction plan in the Strip. This would involve a concerted effort from international actors, including Egypt, Qatar, and the United States, to help rebuild Gaza's infrastructure, revive its economy, and address social stabilization needs. Plans include rebuilding schools, hospitals, roads, and other critical infrastructure, as well as creating job programs and supporting the local economy in Gaza. Mediators are also looking to address long-term political issues, such as the recognition of a Palestinian state and broader regional stability.

Palestinians in Gaza erupted in celebrations across the Strip, expressing mixed emotions of joy, relief, and fear about the coming days. Many have lost family members, neighbors, or friends, and thousands have lost their homes to Israeli airstrikes.

About The Author: 

Mohammed Mhawish, a Palestinian journalist and writer from Gaza, is a Contributing Writer for The Nation. He has also reported for Al Jazeera, MSNBC, The Economist, The New Arab, and more. Subscribe to his newsletter here. You can follow him on X (Formerly twitter) @MohammRafik.

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