The Bleak Future: Will The Gaza Genocide Come to an End?

As the genocide in Gaza stretches into its second year, there is no clear hope that the dust will soon settle. The Palestinians — who are languishing under bombardment, systematic starvation, and forcible displacement — find that the future looks bleak.

With the diminishing momentum of the “day after” visions in Gaza, the indicators reveal that the current reality engineered by Israel mirrors a de-facto blueprint for Gaza's day after. This scenario is marked by long-term Israeli security control, one that perpetuates the humanitarian catastrophe and accelerates collapse within Palestinian governance. All while excluding Palestinians from any meaningful political role in governing Gaza.

The world continues to overlook Israel's colonial agenda, obsessed with a clear objective: the erasure of the Palestinian existence.

Since Oct. 7, 2023, the Israeli regime has unleashed one of the most severe man-made catastrophes in modern history, with over 45,000 Palestinians killed, more than 100,000 injured, and 1.9 million forcibly expelled from homes and towns now reduced to rubble — devastation that will take decades to rebuild.

Alongside this catastrophe, Gaza is experiencing a near-total collapse of governance and economic structures, leading to the rise of local organized groups that thrive amid a dangerous security vacuum. These gangs increasingly undermine humanitarian agencies' efforts to deliver urgent relief and distribute supplies to the population, amid organized looting of aid. This comes after the Israeli regime further tightened its siege on the Strip by preventing practically all aid and aid personnel from entering the Strip. Before that, Israeli soldiers attacked starving Palestinians approaching aid convoys that were allowed in, in what became known as the flour massacre.

In Gaza, Israel's actions over the past 14 months indicate no intention to halt the genocide. The regime is drastically altering the demographic and political reality significantly, revealing its long-standing strategy for Gaza, which centers on consolidating permanent security control over two key areas: the Netzarim and Philadelphia corridors. Israel also intends to refuse a full withdrawal, after more than a year of obstructing efforts to achieve a ceasefire or refusing to release any of the thousands of Palestinians, who are imprisoned in Israeli jails or concentration camps.

The current status quo in Gaza aligns with the Israeli objective to establish a new reality in Gaza similar to the 'Bantustan' model in the West Bank, by segmenting Gaza into isolated enclaves under Israeli control, and maintaining a long-term military presence, especially in the North, the area where Israel silently carries out the 'Generals' plan. This was proposed by retired Israeli general Giora Eiland, in late September of 2024. Eiland's plan marks a new push for eradicating all of the northern Gaza Strip of Palestinians, via forcible displacement orders, intense carpet-bombing, and systematic starvation.

Aside from being a campaign of genocide and ethnic cleansing, the implicit aspect of this plan on the ground reflects a broader colonialist ambition. Israel aims to seize and annex parts of Gaza's territory and enforce control via a prolonged occupation there. Meanwhile, the calls for Jewish resettlement in Gaza — an unthinkable scenario just a few years ago — are now echoing and gaining momentum within the Israeli senior leadership for the first time since the Gaza disengagement in 2005.

In October of 2023, former Israeli FM Eli Cohen stated, “At the end of this war, not only will Hamas no longer be in Gaza, but the territory of Gaza will also decrease.” On Oct. 22, 2024, the event 'Preparing to Settle in Gaza' was organized by the Likud party near Gaza. Daniella Weiss — head of the fascist Nachala Settlement Movement — declared in the Likud's event: “Nachala has established six settlement groups totaling 700 families, who are ready to rebuild settlements in Gaza.” She then added: “The Arabs lost their rights to be there.”

Parallel to the devastation in Gaza, Israel has been intensifying its cleansing campaign in the West Bank, through Israeli settlement expansion and settler violence. This has surged in both frequency and intensity, fueled by a systematic campaign of large-scale military incursions, particularly in the northern West Bank.

Key Palestinian cities — such as Jenin, Tulkarm, and Nablus — have been facing multiple assaults. Local infrastructure has been eroded, with the daily life of the Palestinians completely disrupted. These incursions aim to decimate local resistance and establish Israeli dominance across vast portions of the territory.

These measures reflect an unambiguous colonial objective: to disrupt any basis for Palestinian political sovereignty and erase Palestinians from the geographic and political landscape of what Israeli officials now openly refer to as “Judea and Samaria” (the Israeli term for the West Bank).

Israel's behavior today goes beyond a mere 'response' to the Oct. 7 attack; it is confidently moving toward 'decisiveness' in the West Bank. Today, the West Bank resembles a powder keg, primed for a confrontation that may dwarf the violence seen in previous years.

Israeli ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir — both the de-facto governors of the West Bank and spearheads of settlement expansion — are leading a legislative push to illegalize settlements and assert Israeli annexation to vast stretches of Palestinian lands in Area C and Area B, that make up approximately 60% of the territory.

The presence of nearly 750,000 illegal settlers in the West Bank — who are besieging Palestinian cities and villages, while carrying out pogroms — highlights the severity of this issue. Settlements function as semi-autonomous entities, cutting the West Bank into isolated cantons.

Settler groups — heavily armed, organized, and subsidized by Israeli and foreign sources — function as quasi-military forces, carrying out terrorism against Palestinians in the West Bank. These groups drive the government's agenda of de-facto annexation. Israel's leaders have explicitly stated their intention to eradicate Palestinian claims to sovereignty in the West Bank.

For Israel's leadership, the existence of the Palestinian Authority itself is a dangerous aberration that must be corrected. While the Oslo Accords once promised a pathway to peace through state-building, Israel's interpretation of these frameworks as existential threats underscores a deeply embedded colonialist perspective.

In recent years, Israel has intensified efforts to undermine every element of the Oslo framework, particularly through the expansion of settlements, the expulsion of Palestinians from East Jerusalem, and now, an overwhelming military occupation in Gaza.

Final-status issues — such as Jerusalem, refugees' right of return, Israeli settlements, and border demarcation, all of which were supposedly central to the defunct U.S.-brokered peace process — have been effectively erased from international discussions due to Israeli intransigence and unwillingness to recognize Palestinian rights. These issues are now addressed only in rhetorical terms on the global stage.

Israel's behavior in the West Bank underscores its long-term vision for the territory: a patchwork of Palestinian enclaves governed by military decrees, effectively negating any prospects of a contiguous Palestinian state, turning the Palestinians into a rights-deprived underclass, and redefining their national struggle as a matter of “security” and “humanitarian need.”

Trump's Return

As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House on Jan. 20, Israel's government is seizing on this opportunity to proceed with further colonial expansion in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Israeli PM Netanyahu congratulated Trump following his victory, writing: “Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America.” National Security Minister and settler leader Ben Gvir said, “This is the time for sovereignty, this is the time for complete victory.”

Meanwhile, the Palestinian leadership may be relying on a hollow hope. President Mahmoud Abbas quickly congratulated Trump on his presidential victory. Furthermore, as he noted in his congratulatory letter, “We will remain steadfast in our commitment to peace, and we are confident that the United States will support, under your leadership, the legitimate aspirations of the Palestinian people.”

Hamas also expressed cautious optimism on Trump's election victory. Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri said that Trump would be tested on his statements that he can stop the war in Gaza. “We urge Trump to learn from Biden's mistake,” Abu Zuhri added.

However, Palestinian reliance on a U.S. broker — under the illusion that it will lead to an equitable solution — ignores critical historical lessons. While the PA and Hamas both express hope in the new administration's potential impact, history suggests that American policies are unlikely to yield concessions that genuinely address Palestinian national pursuits to end the occupation.

Trump's reelection is unlikely to alter the U.S. policy toward Israel significantly. His previous tenure marked a shift in U.S. policy notably with his “Deal of the Century,” which redefined Palestinian statehood as fragmented and isolated cantons, with limited sovereignty under Israeli oversight, while it was a blueprint for Israel's annexation of large portions of the West Bank. He also recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital, identified the Golan Heights as falling under Israeli sovereignty, attempted to redefine the “right of return” of Palestinian refugees, and cut off all U.S. funding to the UNRWA.

Trump's policy — which has consistently been one of superficial economic appeasement, rather than genuine political resolution — will hardly align with Palestinian aspirations for self-determination and an end to the Occupation. His recent promises to “bring peace” and “end the war” bear a striking resemblance to his previous policies that prioritize Israel's agenda and sideline substantive progress toward Palestinian rights.

Most importantly for Israel — and by extension for the U.S. — is thwarting any Palestinian success in securing real political gains. Netanyahu has made this clear with an unambiguous declaration: “There will be no Palestinian state as long as I am in power,” a promise he continues to uphold. This stance has been institutionally reinforced with the Israeli Knesset's passing bill explicitly prohibiting the establishment of a Palestinian state.

The Sumud of the Palestinians

Israel has, to this day, failed to erase the Palestinian existence, due to the Palestinians' steadfastness on their land despite all that they have endured. For Palestinians, resistance is not merely an option, but an imperative.

Amid the continuous genocide, there have been crucial accomplishments and strides in the pursuit of justice for the Palestinian cause and their fight for self-determination. This is evident in the return of global focus to the Palestinian issue — an issue that faced prolonged attempts at marginalization — as well as the advances made by the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) movement against Israel.

Additionally, there’s a powerful wave of solidarity with the Palestinians that has swept across Europe, the Americas, and the Global South, especially among university students who rally for equality and advocate for Palestinian rights, even within nations historically supportive of Israel.   

For Palestinians, international solidarity is valuable, yet insufficient in the absence of a cohesive Palestinian political strategy that can leverage this support into meaningful resistance and diplomatic gains. This is a vulnerability that Israel has strategically exploited and exacerbated over the years. Palestinians must overcome political stagnation and rebuild a representative, resilient national strategy capable of advancing their rights and aspirations on the world stage.

Palestinian Political Disarray

Now in its second year, the genocide remains unmet with a real and unified Palestinian national response. Political factions continue to withdraw inward, refusing to confront the deep-seated failures embedded in their strategy despite the growing Israeli threat facing the Palestinians.

Despite the devastation — and under circumstances more severe than any since the Nakba — Israel continues to exploit the Palestinian deadlock to advance its colonial expansionist agenda. Neither faction — Hamas nor Fatah — displays genuine intent to end this disgraceful schism. The gap between these powers — who have become increasingly detached from reality — and the Palestinian populace, who are the core of resistance and the backbone of liberation aspirations, has widened.

Palestinians have lost what they need most at this critical juncture: unity and a Palestinian political order, grounded in democratic principles, representative, participatory, and inclusivity, which could empower them to form a coherent, influential geopolitical power capable of advancing their political goals.

Perhaps the most tangible loss felt is that of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) — once the sole legitimate representative of Palestinians worldwide, which led the Palestinian struggle for decades — is now a mere shadow of its former self, its vitality extinguished. There are few signs of life.

The regional landscape has shifted, with the Arabs engaged in normalization agreements with Israel. The Abraham Accords signified a new era, where regional interests and power dynamics overshadowed the Palestinian cause. This isn’t a pessimistic exaggeration about the bleak Palestinian political future, nor a capitulation to the harsh new reality Israel seeks to impose. The future of Palestine hinges on its ability to withstand and counteract Israel's systematic efforts to dismantle its national identity. 

All that is unfolding now serves as a vital lesson for young Palestinian generations, who must draw upon it to forge a new political revival. Today, there’s an urgent need for a path that learns from experience and corrects missteps by unifying efforts in the struggle for collective rights on Palestinian soil. The responsibility for change in the Palestinian political establishment is a crucial national duty that must be built on inclusive national partnership and a genuine will for unity.